Will the Supreme Court Strike Down Trump’s Tariff Regime?

Last week, the US Supreme Court heard the Trump administration’s appeal of two lower-court rulings that deemed his sweeping tariff program unlawful.

The conflict centres on the so-called Liberation Day Tariffs, created under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). Citing a “national emergency” tied to the US trade deficit, President Trump authorised a series of executive orders that imposed targeted tariffs on more than 90 countries, along with a near-universal 10% baseline tariff on imports from most others.

The lawsuit specifically questions whether the president had the authority to impose such broad tariffs without congressional approval.

A Federal Court ruled in May that Trump exceeded the powers granted under IEEPA when implementing most of the tariff increases, and in August the US Court of Appeals agreed, concluding that the administration’s use of emergency economic powers far surpassed what lawmakers intended. The Trump administration is now asking the Supreme Court to reverse those decisions.

The Court heard oral arguments on November 5th and has until June 2026 to issue a ruling, though many observers expect a decision sooner - possibly by January.

Predictions up until the recent hearing suggested it was a 50/50 case, but pointed skepticism from several justices during the hearing has slightly shifted expectations toward a decision against Trump.

If the appeal fails, the case will likely return to Federal Court to determine remedies. The government could be ordered to refund a significant portion of the roughly $100–120 billion collected through the tariffs, and various trade arrangements built around those measures might be dismantled.

Should the Supreme Court uphold the lower courts’ rulings, Trump would have no remaining judicial path and would need to pursue new tariff legislation through Congress - a route considered politically challenging, especially given that the administration initially relied on emergency powers to avoid congressional involvement.

The Croft team is monitoring developments with great interest.
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