Uncertainty Continues As Supreme Court Delays Trump Tariff Verdict

The future of President Donald Trump’s trade agenda remains unclear as the US Supreme Court delays a highly anticipated decision on the legality of his expansive tariff program.
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Hopes among businesses and investors for a swift resolution have faded, with uncertainty now set to continue for several more weeks.

Expectations that the court would rule this month were dashed when it entered a four-week recess, pushing any judgment into late February at the earliest. In the absence of a ruling, markets and companies are left navigating an extended period of doubt over the durability of the current tariff framework.

Recent events have only added to the sense of instability. A short-lived announcement of a 10% levy on UK exports - later retracted amid diplomatic tensions involving Greenland - briefly drew attention but did little to address the central issue. At stake is whether the president can lawfully impose broad tariffs without the explicit consent of Congress.

Administration officials have signaled that an unfavorable ruling would not derail their approach. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said contingency plans are already being developed to preserve the tariff regime, indicating that any measures struck down by the court would be swiftly reinstated through alternative legal authorities.

The president himself has adopted a harder line, warning that dismantling the tariff system would be chaotic and economically damaging. He has argued that undoing the measures would be a lengthy process, potentially stretching over years and creating significant disruption for businesses and government agencies alike.

The legal challenge, filed by a group of small businesses alongside several US states, targets tariffs introduced in April and claims the president overstepped his constitutional powers. While importers maintain that any refunds should be relatively straightforward if the court rules against the administration, trade lawyers caution that repayment efforts could become held up in administrative delays.

Forecasting markets currently suggest Trump has about a one-in-three chance of prevailing. In the meantime, more than 1,000 companies are preparing legal action as an estimated $130 billion has been collected. However, the wait for a decision continues and now appears unlikely to arrive for at least another month.
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