General
New frameworks were reached with Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Cambodia. Under the terms, Vietnam will keep its current 20% tariff rate for now, though negotiators signaled that select duty reductions could follow. Thailand agreed to maintain its 19% tariff level but committed to eliminating duties on 99% of US exports. Malaysia and Cambodia also finalised reciprocal accords that cap ad valorem tariffs at no more than 19%.
Meanwhile, momentum appears to be building between Washington and Beijing ahead of this week's planned meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Sources say the two sides have outlined a preliminary framework that could delay China’s export restrictions on rare earth minerals - materials vital to US technology and defense sectors - in exchange for Trump suspending plans to double tariffs on Chinese imports. The talks have reportedly also touched on revisions to port fees and customs procedures managed by the US Trade Representative and Chinese authorities.
Yet the future of Trump's trade policy remains very much uncertain with the Supreme Court set to hear a pivotal case on November 5th that could determine the legality of his tariff policies.
Lower courts have already ruled that the administration overstepped its authority by invoking emergency powers to impose sweeping tariffs. Should the Supreme Court affirm those rulings, much of the existing trade regime could be struck down - potentially forcing the government to unwind tariffs and reimburse billions of dollars in duties.
With new deals in Asia, an evolving dialogue with China, and a looming legal showdown at home, the coming weeks promise to be decisive for the future of US trade policy.
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